USAA’s investment experts talk about where the team is finding value in this uncertain financial market-
This content is provided courtesy of USAA.
By Wasif Latif, Vice President Equity Investments &
Matt Freund, Senior Vice President, Investment Portfolio Management
Okay, we admit it. We do occasionally find ourselves talking about what it must have been like to have been asset allocators in the 1980s and 1990s, those golden decades when the Federal Reserve Board broke the back of inflation, leading to a multi-year drop in interest rates.
The Cold War came to an end, bringing a peace dividend to the U.S. budget that, with the cooperation of both political parties and big stock market capital gains, led to government budget surpluses. Government was getting out of the way of the markets — some say too far out of the way — and tax rates were coming down.
Globalization was taking hold in a way that made investors optimistic, the world was generally at peace and the average annual returns from the S&P 500 Index in the 1990s was 17.8%. The maestro himself, Alan Greenspan, seemed to have the magic touch, taming the economic cycle and leading the way to a future domestic and global prosperity.
Just one decade later, we live with current and projected U.S. federal budget deficits that strain weary eyes, if not credulity.
The country is fighting two wars and dealing with the aftershocks of a real estate boom turned bust, leaving an estimated 20% of the nation’s homeowners with houses worth less than their mortgages.
Developed market stocks lost money in the last decade which, along with declining home values, has left many Americans feeling less prosperous, more nervous and less willing to spend. Unemployment has doubled, and it’s even worse if you consider discouraged workers.
Faith in all institutions, from financial to governmental, has collapsed in the wake of a credit crisis, a financial crisis that almost led to a meltdown of the U.S. banking system and the greatest recession since the Great Depression.
No Wobbling
We clearly face a year in 2010 that will require a steely backbone. As British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher told the first President Bush shortly after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, “This is no time to go wobbly.” Here’s a short-list of “known unknowns” that we face this year:
- At the one-year anniversary of its bottom on March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 Index has gained 72.29% through March 9, 2010. That’s an awfully big move in one year, and one that will need to be sustained by continued gains in revenues and earnings.
- The credit markets have largely recovered from the credit crisis, but much of the healing has been courtesy of massive government intervention. This was partly through the effort known as quantitative easing, a multi-trillion dollar program through which the Fed purchased U.S. Treasury and government-backed mortgage securities for its own balance sheet. This program, which needs to be carefully unwound, was extended three months in late 2009 and is currently scheduled to conclude at the end of March. Will the Fed extend the program in some way in order to keep interest rates low, especially on mortgages?
- U.S. unemployment remains stubbornly high, and the latest unemployment numbers, including discouraged workers and those working part-time jobs not by choice, has reached 15%, seasonally adjusted. With consumer spending making up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, the unemployment situation is not heartening.
- While growth in the emerging markets continues to impress, we’ve recently seen the biggest engine, China, take steps to avoid a credit/housing bubble that could slightly depress economic activity. There are also sovereign debt issues, especially in Europe, at a time when many countries around the world — especially ours — need to continually issue new debt and roll over old debt to get the economy back on a sustainable growth path.
Our View of these Intractable Issues
In terms of S&P 500 valuations, it’s important to remember that the recent huge gain came off the very depressed levels of last March. At its current level of around 1,140, the S&P 500 appears fairly valued, trading at 14.6 times the 2010 earnings estimate. This is still a full 27% below its 2007 high. U.S. Gross Domestic Product fourth-quarter growth was just revised upward to a healthy 4.9%, the best since the third quarter of 2003.
Corporate profits are improving at a time when balance sheets are strong and costs have been cut. There is room for stocks to move higher, especially U.S. large caps with reasonable valuations, cash on hand, access to global markets and the ability to access the debt markets.
Further, there is tremendous liquidity sitting on the sidelines in almost zero-yielding money market accounts and 1% to 2% savings accounts. U.S. money market funds hold more than $3 trillion and there is another $1 trillion in excess reserves on bank balance sheets, with an additional $1 trillion held by U.S. companies.
When it comes to quantitative easing, we look at Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s history. As a student of the Great Depression, he remembers when Franklin Roosevelt pulled back in 1937, raised taxes and effectively extended that terrible period until the U.S.’ entry into World War II.
Despite the Fed’s transparency, we don’t see the government allowing us to re-enter crisis conditions, especially after spending trillions of dollars and backing tens of trillions of dollars of debt securities. This bodes well for the corporate bond market, the housing market and the economy.
As for unemployment, it appears that the government is finally getting serious, with both parties facing mid-term elections in November. It won’t be easy, but this much is clear — even a slow increase in employment can have a positive impact on consumer behavior, which may lead investors to seek less-conservative options.
Finally, we are concerned that emerging markets stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves at the same time developed markets, especially in Europe, may be facing issues. We have therefore slightly reduced our overweight to emerging markets, remain underweight in non-U.S. developed markets, and have increased our overweight to the USAA Precious Metals and Minerals Fund.
So there is value, and we’re working to find it. There are portions of the bond market, particularly among banks and insurers, commercial mortgage-backed securities and select corporate bonds that our fixed income managers find attractive, and they are monitoring and adjusting portfolios accordingly.
Our goal at this point is to give ourselves maximum flexibility to deal with volatile markets, providing protection to our managed account-holders while giving them the opportunity to take advantage of selloffs if we perceive that they are overdone, as was the case with the stock market swoon in January. We will look to gradually de-risk as the year goes on and expectations for the economy decline later in the year.
Consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the USAA mutual funds carefully before investing. Contact us at 1-800-531-8910 for a prospectus containing this and other information about the funds from USAA Investment Management Company, Distributor. Read it carefully before investing.